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Перспективы развития экономики Грузии

Перспективы развития экономики Грузии


Кризис, возникший в регионе в результате событий на Украине, существенно изменил прогнозы экономического роста Грузии на 2023 г. Эксперты считают, что санкции против России могут привести к серьезным негативным последствиям для экономики Грузии, которая значительно связана с российским рынком.

Россия является одним из крупнейших торговых партнеров Грузии. В 2021-2002 г.г. объем торговли между странами превысил 1,6 миллиарда долларов, что на 23,2% больше, чем в 2020 году. Доля России в общем внешнем торговом обороте Грузии составляет 11,4%.

Проблемы могут возникнуть и с товарами из Украины, поставки которых также значимы для Грузии. На фоне продолжающейся СВО на Украине и санкций против России, сектор оптовой торговли Грузии, скорее всего, вскоре столкнется с трудностями.

Вместе с тем, Грузия ведет переговоры с Международным валютным фондом о начале новой программы для стимулирования экономического роста. Эксперты полагают, что это крайне важно к макроэкономической стабильности и устойчивости страны. Однако вряд ли МВФ поможет Грузии. С увеличением неопределенности, вызванной событиями на Украине, намечено падение национальной валюты Грузии.

По мнению руководства Грузии введение экономических санкций против России может иметь серьезное влияние на экономику республику. Главным образом, это связано с тем, что экономика Грузии в значительной степени зависит от российского рынка, особенно в отношении стратегического сырья, такого как пшеница и мука, подсолнечное масло и др. Если вводиться ограничения на импорт этих товаров, Грузии придется искать альтернативные рынки, что может стать более дорогостоящим процессом и привести к большему оттоку валюты из страны. Ожидается, что объем экспорта снизится, что также вынудит Грузию искать альтернативу.

Грузия зависит от чувствительных товаров, которые получает от России. Если поставок не будет из России в Грузии, то тут замену может и найдем, а вот поставку своих товаров Грузии будет сложно возместить. Фрукты, вино и туризм Грузия вряд ли сможет заменить, то есть этих доходов не будет. Туризм занимает серьезный сектор в экономике страны. Если за счет российский туристов не будет доходов, это будет большой удар по торговле и сельскому хозяйству.

«Экономика Грузии рухнет, мы нанесем вред нашему народу, если введем двусторонние экономические санкции против России. Товарооборот Грузии с Россией составляет менее $1 млрд. Для сравнения, ЕС торгует всего за четыре дня столько, сколько мы торгуем за целый год. Это смешно. Логики нет. Это нанесло бы ущерб национальным интересам нашей страны», — сказал премьер-министр Грузии Ираклий Гарибашвили на панельной дискуссии Катарского экономического форума.скачать dle 11.0фильмы бесплатно
                 
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